Forecasts based on the projections from 10 economists as of Monday, Oct 4. NA = not available. E = estimate. R = revised. **** = tentative. --Forecast-- Date Indicators :Median : Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr 10/07 Trade Balnce : 33.0: -32.0 -27.5R -26.4R -28.8 10/07 Goods Balnce: NA : -43.0 -38.3R -37.2R -39.9R 10/07 Imports : : 159.6 152.4R 148.7R 149.7R 10/07 Exports : : 127.6 124.9R 122.3R 120.6R 10/07 Consumr Crdt : : 2472.1 2493.6R 2509.2R 2518.4 10/07 change : -8.5: -21.5 -15.6R -9.2R -21.0 10/08 Unemply Clms : 540:[9/26 551 [9/19 534R ] [9/12 550] 10/08 Wholesale Inv: : 387.2 392.5R 400.8 405.6 10/08 % change : -1.1: -1.4 -2.1R -1.2 -1.3 10/08 Invty-Sales: : 1.23 1.25R 1.28R 1.31 10/13 Trsy Budget : NA : -111.4 -180.7 -94.3 -189.7 -20.9 10/14 Retail Sales : : 351.4 342.3 342.7R 339.9 338.3 10/14 % change : NA : 2.7 -0.1 0.8 0.5 -0.3 10/14 Ex-Auto : : 287.2 284.2 285.7R 283.7 283.0 10/14 % change : NA : 1.1 -0.5 0.7R 0.2 -0.3 10/14 Busin Invty : : 1,333 1,346R 1,365 1,382 10/14 % change : NA : -1.0 -1.4R -1.2 -1.3 10/14 % mfg chg : : -0.7 -1.1R -0.8 -1.2 10/15 CPI : : 215.8 215.4 215.7 213.9 213.2R 10/15 % change : NA : 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0R 10/15 % 12-mo chg: : -1.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.3 -0.7 10/15 CPI Core : : 219.6 219.4 219.3 219.1 219.1 10/15 % change : NA : 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10/15 Real Earnings: : -0.2 0.5 -1.2 0.0 0.0 10/16 Industl Prod : : 97.4 96.7 95.8R 96.1R 97.2R 10/16 % change : NA : 0.8 1.0 -0.4 -1.1 -0.6R 10/16 Capacty Util: NA : 69.6 69.0 68.3R 68.5R 69.2R 10/20 Hsg Starts : NA : 0.598 0.589 0.590R 0.551 0.479 10/20 % change : : 1.5 -0.2 7.1R 15.0 -8.1 10/20 Permits : NA : 0.579 0.564 0.570 0.518 0.498 10/20 % change : : 2.7 -1.1 10.0 4.0 -2.5 10/20 PPI : : 174.3 172.6 174.1 170.8 169.9 10/20 % change : NA : 1.7 -0.9 1.8 0.2 0.3 10/20 % 12-mo chg: : -4.3 -6.8 -4.6 -5.0 -3.7 10/20 PPI Core : : 171.2 171.0 171.5R 171.1 171.3 10/20 % change : NA : 0.2 -0.1 0.5R -0.1 0.1 10/22 LEI : : 102.5 101.9 101.0 100.2 99.0 10/22 % change : NA : 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 10/23 Exist Hm Sls : NA : 5.10 5.24 4.89 4.72 4.66 10/23 % change : : -2.7% 7.2% 3.6% 1.3% 2.4% 10/27 Cnsmr Confid : NA : 53.1 54.5 47.4 49.3 54.8 40.8 10/27 Pre Stl Imp : : -13.2 15.9 -16.7 -16.0 -19.3 10/28 Durable Gds : 615.0: 164.4 168.5 160.6 162.7 160.5 10/28 % change : NA : -2.4 4.9 -1.3 1.3 1.4 10/28 NonDef Captl: : 52.7 56.7 53.0R 53.1 48.6 10/28 % change : : -7.1 7.0 -0.2R 9.1 -3.5 10/28 S/F Home Sls : NA : 429 426 400R 371R 345 10/28 % change : : 0.7% 6.5% 7.8%R 7.5%R 3.9% 10/29 GDP Annual % : NA :[Q2 09 -0.7R [Q1 09 -6.4 ][Q4 08 0.4] 10/29 Final Sales%: NA :[Q2 09 0.9R [Q1 09 -6.4 ][Q4 08 4.9 ] 10/29 PCE Defltr % NA :[Q2 09 -0.9R [Q1 09 0.6][Q4 08 -3.1 ] 10/29 Prc Defltr %: NA :[Q2 09 0.0 [Q1 09 1.9][Q4 08 0.0] 10/29 Chnd Wt Prc%: :[Q2 09 0.0 [Q1 09 1.9][Q4 08 0.1] 10/30 ECI : NA :[Q2 09 0.4 [Q1 09 0.3][Q4 08 0.6] 10/30 ECI Annual : NA :[Q2 09 1.8 [Q1 09 2.1][Q4 08 2.6] 10/30 Personal Inc : : 11,973 11,954 11,934R 12,070R 11,912R 10/30 % change : NA : 0.2 0.2 -1.1 1.3R 0.2R 10/30 PCE : : 10,205 10,076 10,051R 9,979R 9,968R 10/30 % change : NA : 1.3 0.3 0.6R 0.1 -0.1 11/02 Constrcn Spd : : 941.9 934.6 945.1R 958.3 971.4 11/02 % change : NA : 0.8 -1.1 -1.4R -1.3 0.5 11/02 ISM : NA : 52.6 52.9 48.9 44.8 42.8 40.1 11/02 Employment : : 46.2 46.4 45.6 40.7 34.3 34.4 11/02 Prices : : 63.5 65.0 55.0 50.0 43.5 32.0 11/03 Factory Ords : : 352.9 355.7 350.9 347.6 343.8 11/03 % change : NA : -0.8 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 11/03 Unfill Order: : 736.8 739.9 740.7 746.7 749.1 11/03 % change : : -0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -0.3 -1.1 11/05 Prod & Costs%: NA :[Q2 08 6.5R [Q1 08 0.2][Q4 08 0.8] 11/05 Unit Labor%: NA :[Q2 08 -6.0R [Q1 08 -4.9R ][Q4 08 1.8] 11/06 Jobless Rate : NA : 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.5 9.4 8.9 11/06 Jobs (chg) : : -263 -201 -304 -463 -303 -519 11/06 Pvt (chg) : : -210 -182 -246 -391 -292 -592 11/06 Manuf(chg): : -51 -66 -41 -123 -146 -150 11/06 Factory hrs : : 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 11/06 Avg Hr % chg: NA : 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0R 11/24 Corp Profit%: :[Q2 09 0.9R [Q1 09 1.3][Q4 08 -2.0 ] 12/16 Current Acct : :[Q2 09 -$98.8 [Q1 09 -104.5R ][Q4 08 -$154.9]
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